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Did Survivor Fix the Diversity Problem?

Survivor is a reality TV game where contestants compete through a series of vote-outs until one is crowned the Sole Survivor.

It's pretty straightforward — players need to:

Outplay

Play games to win immunity.

Outwit

Use strategy to convince players to not vote them out.

Outlast

Don't get voted out — and make it to the end.

Take Season 18: Tocantins for example.

Fig. 1
Season 18: Tocantins · Cast Progression
Day 116 players↓Merge9 players↓Finale2 players↓Winner1 player
BIPOC FemaleBIPOC MaleWhite FemaleWhite MaleNon-Binary

We start with 16 players on Day 1.

After 6 tribe-based voteouts, 10 make it to the next stage of the game, called the Merge.

Our finale has 2 players remaining. J.T. Thomas and Stephen Fishbach face the jury.

Leading to J.T. pulling off an impressive sweep.

We can visualize any season of Survivor this way.
Give it a shot:

Select a Season
Fig. 2
Season 18: Tocantins
Day 116 players↓Merge9 players↓Finale2 players↓Winner1 player
BIPOC FemaleBIPOC MaleWhite FemaleWhite MaleNon-Binary

You may have noticed something — there aren't many people of color in these seasons. This isn't just an issue with casting - let's look at how biases can manifest in player behavior during the game.

For each season, we can look at how players are targeted in the pre-merge.

-20%-10%0%+10%+20%-0.6%S1-S10+0.3%S11-S20+15.5%S21-S30BIPOC players targeted ~16% morethan their pool share predicts.+12.6%S31-S40-8.2%S41-S49post-mandatePercent Deviation in Expected vs Actual Targeting

The bars show the difference between BIPOC share of votes received vs. BIPOC share of the eligible pool. If the bar is positive, that means people of color were over-targeted .

For seasons 21–30, players of color were especially targeted at rates above what we'd expect.

Casting choices and voting patterns weren't going unnoticed.

Fig. 3
Cast composition: pre-mandate
0%25%50%75%100%16%12%34%39%Beginning13%12%34%41%Merge12%13%36%38%Finalist
BIPOC FemaleBIPOC MaleWhite FemaleWhite MaleNon-Binary

There was pressure from fans and alumni to make changes to the game.

Beginning with Season 41, CBS announced that at least half of every Survivor cast would be people of color.

There are more people of color participating in the later seasons — at every stage of the game.

Explore the new era
Fig. 4
Season 45
Day 118 players↓Merge11 players↓Finale3 players↓Winner1 player
BIPOC FemaleBIPOC MaleWhite FemaleWhite MaleNon-Binary
The new era — S41 onward
Pre-merge targeting: the new era
-20%-10%0%+10%+20%-0.6%S1-S10+0.3%S11-S20+15.5%S21-S30+12.6%S31-S40-8.2%S41-S49post-mandateBIPOC under-targeted post-mandateCI [-24.3%, 7.0%]Percent Deviation in Expected vs Actual Targeting

But the bigger question — did casting more players of color actually change the game?

In the newest seasons, the pattern was undone — players of color were no longer over-targeted in pre-merge votes. But with only 9 seasons of post-mandate data, the picture is still uncertain.

2030405060age (years)S1-S10Average Age: 34S11-S20Average Age: 33S21-S30Average Age: 34S31-S40Average Age: 34S41-S49Average Age: 32

The diversity mandate reshaped Survivor's cast almost overnight. But when talking about diversity, it's important to look at more than just race. Let's take a closer look at who gets cast in the new era.

Players in recent seasons fall into a narrower age band than in earlier eras — winners cluster tightly between 20–35, with Yam Yam (36) and Gabler (52) as the outlying exceptions.

We can also look at diversity of income — using listed occupations and hometowns, we can estimate players' wages using BLS data.

$50k$100k$150k$200kS1S10S20S30S40S49estimated annual income

Let's look at how estimated incomes have shifted across seasons.

Inflation accounts for some of this, but the gap is too wide to explain entirely.

The new Survivor cast may be more racially diverse, but the players also have occupations that tend to have higher incomes compared to older seasons.

· · ·

So — did Survivor fix the diversity problem?

Survivor's diversity problem was never just about casting. For decades, players of color were voted out at rates that exceeded what their numbers alone would predict. When CBS mandated 50% representation, the racial makeup of the cast changed — but the players who filled those spots increasingly came from a narrower demographic slice: younger, wealthier, more alike in background if not in race.

The best thing about Survivor is that it's willing to change and grow. Hopefully as more fans talk about how homogenous some of the players feel, producers will complement racial diversity with diversity in background and experience. Because as Jeff Probst has said — this show is the ultimate study of human behavior.